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Car Rental and Covid: what is the forecast for 2021?

In past days we have tried to identify correlations to understand what could happen in the coming months but especially in the next few weeks, so we tried to cross-reference some data relating to MyRent transactions and the trend of COVID patients.

Obviously, we could see a certain type of correlation between these two data, however the most significant data is if we correlate the number of ICU patients for COVID and that of reservations received and canceled.

Covid and forecast

Covid and forecast

In Italy the registration of the number of patients recorded in intensive care began on 24 February 2020, so we do not yet have a complete year on which to compare the data, but the data that emerges is interesting.

In fact, we can see that the increase in the number of patients, in particular the acceleration in the number of admitted patients, anticipates the collapse of bookings and the increase in cancellations. Also the opposite is true. The decrease in hospitalization anticipates the recovery of bookings and contracts.

Nothing transcendental, logic explains that as the number of hospitalized people increases, national governments undertake restrictive measures – the lock downs – that limit the freedom of people and travels, with a consequent collapse in demand.

Although the number of ICU patients still remains high, this analysis may suggest that if the number of ICU patients continues to decline, the demand for car rental will also continue to increase as it is now occurring immediately after Christmas in Italy at least – and it would be a blessing for next season.

Please share your opinion by leaving us a comment.

 

PS. If you have not already done so, you can subscribe to our podcast “The car rental podcast“.

 

Mauro Chiarugi

Mauro Chiarugi

Mauro Chiarugi

CEO of Dogma Systems

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